Essay 19

Essay 19: Mass Longevity First Pass

[Note: When I started this essay, I had intended to say what I had to say in a single piece. As I began to think through the issues, I realized that would not be possible. These are supposed to be short essays, averaging about 750 words, and not exceeding 1000. To fully explore this issue would take five to ten times that many words. So, I decided to take on pieces of the idea. My intent with the short essays model is to give the reader something to think about without taxing their attention. As I looked over some of my topics, I realize that many of those topics would require several passes as well. So, here goes. I will try to keep it short.]

Like most seniors, I think about longevity now more than I did when I was younger. For most people, longevity is the question in their minds regarding how much time they have left. Clearly, if you could know, somehow, that you have 2 years, 10 years, 20 years or more left, you could plan better. But longevity is more complicated than that.

I was reading a book entitled The 100-Year Life, a few years ago, as I have been thinking about longevity for a while. The book said that longevity is going to be the disruptive force of the 21^st century. That caught my attention. I had been thinking about many sides of longevity from a personal perspective. But I hadn’t really thought much about the consequences for society at large.

Yes, it is the baby boomers again. They disrupted the 1960s with their teenage hormones and now are likely to disrupt the 21st century with their extended lifespans. It isn't just their long lives. It is their numbers and sense of entitlement that is going to break everything (I should mention that I am a baby boomer so I'm not just throwing stones at another generation). Breaking everything is not necessarily bad. Nor is it new. Things have been broken before. Civilizations and social forces like the Ancient Greeks, the Roman Empire, Christianity, and the Renaissance, to name of few, broke everything as well. But as stuff breaks due to the Baby Boomers longevity, there will be two big questions: 1) what caused it; and 2) what do we do about it?

The first question will be answered by the science of longevity and the sociological factors that make up the perfect storm. The second question is a little more difficult but much more interesting to me and has far fewer obvious answers. Technological predictions are a cakewalk compared to longevity predictions. And responses are even more elusive. There will be new worldviews, new political coalitions, new lifestyles, new social, personal, and emotional demands. There will be a period of transition where nobody seems to know what is going on. So far lots of questions many unknowns and very few answers.

Nonetheless, I will take a stab at a few obvious impacts.

1. The healthcare system. Longevity will increase along with a declining birth rate. So, gerontologists will outnumber pediatricians. Further, new breakthroughs in longevity coupled with Medicare support will shift the market in health care to problems affecting seniors.

2. The economy. We are already having problems with seniors who won’t retire along with those re-entering the work force competing for jobs with younger people. While younger people have advantages in strength and mental agility, seniors have advantages in experience and perspective.

3. The political system. Generally younger people are more liberal wanting change while older people are more conservative wanting predictability. There is a quote attributed to many different people that claims if you are not a liberal when you are young you have no heart and if you are not a conservative when you get older you have no head. The country will get more conservative.

4. The consumer markets. The seniors will not only begin to outnumber the young, but they will also have the bulk of the spending money and net worth. Look for new housing and vacation options for senior citizens along with new recreation and free time activities.

In future essays, I will drill down on this a bit more and explore a major ethical issue – if we have too many old people and not enough new people what should we do about it?

Send an email to me at drjohnartz@gmail.com if you have a comment on any of my essays. And please check out my website at DrJohnArtz.com to see other things I have written.